The Hand

I was in an APT Online 8.8 Double Chance event — a format where you start with one 10k stack and can claim a second at any time, or automatically receive it if you bust. Near the money, I found myself with 18 big blinds in the small blind, facing a cutoff open from a player with a roughly 20% VPIP (though cutoff open ranges are naturally wider — closer to 28–32%).

I shoved Ace-9 suited.
He tanked, then called with Ace-Jack offsuit.
I lost.

And as always, the pang of shame hit first — the reflexive thought: you messed up again.

But this time, I paused. I reflected.
And the truth came through: I didn’t make a mistake.
I just ran into the top of his range.

The Logic Behind the Play

Here’s the technical side, grounded in GTO Wizard and ICMizer logic.

📊 Pre-Bubble Dynamics

  • Effective stack: 18 BB
  • CO opening range (approx. 28–32%):
    All pairs 22+, all broadways (KTo+, QJo), suited aces, A8o+, suited connectors down to 65s.
  • Hero (SB) shove range at 18bb GTO vs CO open:
    A2s+, A7o+, K9s+, KTo+, Q9s+, JTs, T9s, all pairs 22+.

👉 A9s is squarely in the profitable reshove range.
In chip-EV simulations, A9s shows +0.35–0.45 BB EV per shove versus a 30% CO open, assuming villain calls with roughly 9–10% (77+, AJo+, ATs+, KQs).

Even accounting for mild ICM pressure near the money, it remains +EV unless villain is calling ridiculously tight (<7%), which is rare.

💻 ICM Adjusted (ICMizer estimate)

In a near-bubble situation (assuming 10% paid, 11 left, hero 8th in chips):

  • Fold EV ≈ 1.00x stack value
  • Shove EV ≈ 1.03–1.05x stack value
    (Still positive ICM-EV)

So, from both a chip-EV and ICM-adjusted standpoint, A9s remains a clear shove. The play wasn’t the problem — variance was.

The Real Battle: Emotional Aftermath

After hands like this, my mind tends to loop the same message:

“You fucked up. You’ve missed your chance again.”

But that voice isn’t coming from poker — it’s coming from old wiring. From the part of me that learned, long ago, that mistakes and losses mean I’m bad, not just unlucky.

What’s really happening is a variance event, and my body responds as if it’s shame.
So I regulate. I reflect. I breathe through it.
I write.

This is how I reset — consciously, manually. Maybe some people’s nervous systems just snap back into calm automatically. Mine needs this ritual — this meaning-making.
And maybe that’s okay. Maybe that’s even beautiful.

The Bigger Lesson

In poker, as in life:

  • Good decisions don’t guarantee good outcomes.
  • Bad outcomes don’t mean bad decisions.
  • The real skill isn’t avoiding pain — it’s returning to presence after it hits.

So even though I lost this hand — I won something far more stable: trust in my process, both logical and emotional.

If the same situation came up again, with the same information, I’d make the same play.

Because it wasn’t a mistake.
It was courage — executed correctly.

— Alex